Sources
- Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicksBar-Eli, Azar, Ritov, Keidar-Levin and Schein, Journal of Economic Psychology 28 (2007), 606–621
- Free version of the paperMPRA, University of Munich
- Should I stay or should I go? Optimal decision making in penalty kicksThe 2009 reply that disputes the conclusion
Short link: storygaffer.com/01. The narration is AI-generated. Sources last checked 20 October 2026.
Tactics · Penalties · Goalkeepers
Keepers who stood still saved over twice as often.
Goalkeepers dive on 94% of penalties. In one study of 286 kicks, the few who stayed in the middle saved 1 in 3, while the ones who dived saved 1 in 7.
The stat that matters
Stayed put: 1 in 3 saved. Dived: 1 in 7.
Match report
- Researchers looked at 286 penalties from top leagues and championships around the world.
- Keepers dived left or right on 94% of them and stayed in the centre on just 6%.
- Around 29% of kicks went down the middle.
- Keepers who stayed in the centre saved about 1 in 3 of those penalties. Keepers who dived saved about 1 in 7.
- The authors put it down to action bias: a goal feels worse if you did nothing, so diving at least looks like trying.
- Only 18 of the 286 penalties had the keeper staying in the middle, and a 2009 paper using the same data argues keepers' choices are close to the best they can do.
The keeper, kicker and goal are drawn to explain the numbers, not taken from a real penalty.
On screen
- Keepers who stood still saved over twice as often.
- 286 penalties from top leagues.
- Keepers dived on 94% of them.
- They stayed central just 6%.
- 29% of kicks went down the middle.
- Stayed put: 1 in 3 saved.
- Dived: 1 in 7 saved.
- So why dive?
- A goal feels worse if you didn't move.
- A dive at least looks like trying.
- Next penalty, watch the middle.