Leicester's 2016 title was even less likely than you think.

Match report

• We replayed all 380 games of the 2015/16 Premier League, all 9,908 shots, using StatsBomb's expected goals (xG): the chance each shot goes in.
• On the chances each team created and conceded, Arsenal were the best side, with 73.5 expected points. Leicester were 4th, with 66.2.
• Leicester won the league with 81 points, 14.8 more than expected. That was the biggest overachievement in the league.
• It wasn't Vardy's finishing. Leicester scored 67 goals from shots against 66.3 expected.
• The miracle was at the back: they conceded 36 against 46.1 expected, and won 14 games by a single goal.
• Expected points come from simulating every game from its shots, treating each shot as an independent chance, penalties included. Other xG models give slightly different totals.
• "Goals from shots" leaves out the one own goal Leicester benefited from, so they scored 68 in all.

The players, trophy and pitch are illustrations. The numbers are worked out from StatsBomb's data.

On screen

1. Leicester 2016: football's great miracle.
2. The numbers say it was even less likely.
3. Every shot. All 380 games.
4. Expected goals: the chance each shot goes in.
5. Best team on the chances: Arsenal.
6. Leicester? Fourth.
7. They won it with 81 points.
8. About 15 more than their chances earned.
9. The league's biggest overachievement.
10. Not Vardy's finishing.
11. They scored what their chances were worth.
12. The miracle was at the other end.
13. 10 fewer goals conceded than expected.
14. And 14 wins by a single goal.